DDproperty Thailand Property Market Outlook 2021

In 2020, the property market faced challenges due to several factors that stalled potential market growth. At the forefront is the COVID-19 pandemic that slowed the economy and increased household debt. As a result, many consumers delayed their decision to buy a house.

Looking ahead to 2021, prices and supply should balance out. The second half of 2021 should show signs of recovery depending on how the economic and political situation fares, how the COVID-19 outbreak pans out, and whether the government introduces a property market stimulus measure.

The Bank of Thailand’s (BOT) loan-to-value (LTV) measure presented a challenge to home buyers wanting to invest in multiple properties or buy property over THB10 million due to the requirement of higher deposits. This group of buyers disappeared from the market, causing it to steadily slow down from the middle of 2019 till the beginning of 2020.

The COVID-19 pandemic caused businesses in Thailand to reduce employee numbers, cut salaries, and downsize to manage costs and avoid closure. The crisis also compelled consumers to reduce spending on luxury and household expenses.

Due to the overall property slump, most developers delayed launching new projects, especially of condominiums. Instead, they focused on selling existing inventory and offering discounts of up to 40% on top of other promotional strategies to stimulate sales and transfer ownership. This resulted in the Bangkok Housing Price Index decreasing from last year.

By the end of 2019, house prices were still decreasing due to an economic slowdown, a high level of household debt, and the new LTV requirements. Housing prices remain on a downward trajectory due to the same factors and even before the COVID-19 outbreak dampened the market further.

The DDproperty Thailand Property Market Index has shown that the residential Price Index in Bangkok decreased in the final quarter of 2019 to 207 points before declining to 204 points in Q1 2020. It slipped further to 198 points in Q2 2020 before slightly increasing to 201 points after the announcement to lift the lockdown. This 2% rise was the first time increase in six quarters since Q1 2019, but overall, the Price Index had decreased by 9% if compared with the same period in the previous year.

In Q4 2019, the Supply Index continued to decrease to 336 points, and dropped to 335 points in Q1 2020. Despite a further decrease to 313 points in the following quarter, the indices rose 23% to 385 points in Q3 2020 when the lockdown was lifted.

This Supply Index increase illustrates how consumers wanted to sell post lockdown and how many buyers delayed their decision to buy due to the economic uncertainty.

In 2020, Suan Luang sub-district had the highest condominium supply, increasing by 42%. For single-detached houses, Bang Na had the most supply rising a staggering 233% while Bang Chak sub-district in Phra Khanong district had the most supply of townhouses, growing by 78%.

Looking at prices, 34% of the supply was for properties less than THB1 million and 29% for the THB1 to 3 million bracket. The supply of properties priced between THB5 and 10 million decreased by 7% while those between THB3 and 5 million decreased by 3%.

The global pandemic has impacted consumer buying decisions according to the latest DDproperty Thailand Consumer Sentiment Study. 75% of consumers delayed buying a house, while 32% had concerns about prices. 31% believed that it is a difficult time to secure a mortgage with loan approvals taking longer than usual, while 24% turned their attention to buying products focused on health and wellbeing. Lastly, 20% found it difficult to visit a project, hence delaying their investment.

Aside from prices, mortgage and locations are two other important factors considered by people when buying a property. Post the Covid-19 pandemic, consumers want their properties to enhance their new lifestyles, especially considering the shift towards working from home.

Even though the Thai economy has slightly recovered due to the successful control of the COVID-19 pandemic, the gradual recovery of the global economy needs to be considered. Overall activity is down and lower than before the outbreak.

The economy is forecast to grow by 3.6% in 2021 according to the Monetary Policy Committee, but assuming there is no new outbreak it will take two years to recover. The Monetary Policy Committee has also kept the policy rate at 0.5% per year, the lowest rate in history, to help on the road to recovery.

The proximity to BTS and MRT lines influenced property prices in Nonthaburi, which are likely to continually increase due to rising demand.

Samut Prakan is a province that takes advantage of the BTS Green Line which was extended between Bearing and Kheha. Expected to be completed in 2021, the BTS Green Line has led to increases in residential property prices in areas near the train line, such as Thai Ban Mai sub-district in Mueang Samut Prakan district.

There are many factors that make Pathum Thani province an ideal area to live in, one of which is proximity to large department stores and the BTS Green Line running between Mo Chit–Sapan Mai-Kukot, as well as the extended line running between Kukot and Outer Ring stations.

In 2021, the property market will start showing signs of recovery in line with the increased Price Index and news of a successful COVID-19 vaccine. Additionally, the economy is expected to fare better than anticipated.

Buyers will continue to be motivated by campaigns and promotions and encouraged to transfer ownership swiftly to help developer liquidity. Developers have adopted new marketing strategies to attract demand as property prices are forecast to remain stagnant for the first half of 2021 and rise only in the second half of the year. The market next year is also expected to be driven by real demand as opposed to speculative investors.